Election day is this Tuesday, November 8th. On the ballot are all 435 seats in the House of Representatives, as well as 35 seats in the Senate. Additionally, there are 36 of 50 states with an election for Governor happening. Virginia is not one of these states, and has no Senate races either.  

This election has significant impact for the rest of Biden’s first term in office because of the razor-thin margins of error for each political party. Currently, Democrats, the party of President Biden, control the House of Representatives by a majority of 220-212 with 3 open seats. . In order to have control of the House of Representatives, the controlling party must control 218 seats or more. The Democrats also cling onto control of the Senate with a 50-50 balance, but Vice President Kamala Harris controls a tiebreaking vote which has always leaned Democrat due to party designation.  This means is that in each race, both prominent political parties, the Republicans and Democrats, can’t afford an error. 

With thin margins to win the election, political parties are focusing on several key Senate races. The closest races are in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, with three of the four races including incumbent Democrats. All of the races are projected to be close and only in Arizona it is not considered a “toss-up”. Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania Senate races have the leading party only winning by 1% of the vote. These small voting groups will control the political 50-50 balance of the Senate. 

In Virginia’s 10th District, where we live,  Democrat Jennifer Wexton has a lead on former solider and Republican Hung Cao. Currently, Wexton has a 54.9% to 45.1% lead over Cao in FiveThirtyEight polls. Wexton is projected to win 93 out of 100 scenarios. 

According to FiveThirtyEight, which runs an analytical analysis of the election, they said that Republicans are most likely to gain control of at least one house. They further stated that the Republican party would win the House of Representatives 82 out of 100 scenarios and the Senate in 54 out of 100 scenarios. Additionally, it stated that Democrats only have a 17% chance of maintaining both the House of Representatives and the Senate, while Republicans hold a 53% chance of winning over both chambers of Congress.  

Key ballot issues this election cycle will most likely revolve around the economy, inflation, crime, gun policies, abortion, voting, and democracy to be key issues this election cycle.  

Republicans have been poised to utilize the declining economy and increasing inflation to get voters engaged. Only 23% of Americans believe the economy is in good shape and 43% of Americans think America will be in a recession next year. Voters see this as the most important voting issue. Additionally, Republicans are using crime and false claims of election fraud led by Donald Trump to increase support among the base voters.  

Democrats plan on running primarily on guaranteeing abortion rights after the conservative-leaning Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, which guaranteed the right to abortion by the Constitution. They plan to attract more voters, as 60% of Americans support keeping abortion legal with the trend becoming higher with younger voters. Democrats also plan to run on limiting gun violence, keeping guns out of schools, and maintaining democracy after the January 6th insurrection, which was a result of former President Trump refusing to concede to election winner Joe Biden. We will see if this occurs with either party at responsibility as someone has to win the houses of Congress and 36 Governor’s seats.